The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season in India (June to September). The cumulative rainfall is estimated to be 105 percent of the long-period average. The IMD has also ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the entire season. The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of a significant portion of the population and contributes substantially to the country's GDP. However, while the prediction of normal rainfall brings relief, climate change is expected to cause variations in rainfall distribution.
Skymet expects a good monsoon over western and southern India.
India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm), he said.
Heatwave may abate over most parts of North India in next two days; temperatures likely to drop by 2-3C.
Addressing a press conference virtually, India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said September was likely to witness normal rainfall in the range of 91-109 per cent of the long period average of 167.9 mm.
"This year, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days," the India meteorological department said on Wednesday.
On May 15, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 per cent chance of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said on Monday.
El Nino is expected to occur in August-September, but it is unlikely to have any major impact on the monsoon, and the weatherman expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which has a strong influence on rainfall in the country.
Above-normal heatwave days are predicted in most parts of central, east and northwest India during this period.
In the 30-year period between 1986 and 2015, temperatures of the warmest day and the coldest night of the year have risen by about 0.63 degree Celsius and 0.4 degree Celsius, respectively.
G P Sharma, President (Meteorology) of the Skymet Weather said the Long Period Average of the rainfall during June to September will be 103 per cent with an error margin of plus or minus 5 per cent.
Rainfall in August is predicted to be below normal (less than 94 per cent of LPA), but the situation is expected to improve comparatively in September, the IMD said.
India will receive normal monsoon this season, country's meteorological department said on Wednesday in its forecast for the Southwest monsoon that covers 75 per cent of the country, and thereby may bring much-needed respite to the economy, which is reeling under the catastrophic effect of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Mohapatra said there is a 40 per cent chance of a normal rainfall, 22 per cent above normal, 12 per cent excess and 18 per cent below normal.
According to Skymet Weather, the initial surge in the Monsoon rains can be attributed to the transition of El Nino into the neutral phase.
In another forecast for August, IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said monsoon is also likely to be normal in the month.
'When there is a change in the wind speed or the stress exerted on the surface, it will change the ocean currents.'
Also, the monsoon this year may end up being the driest since 2015, which recorded a rainfall deficit of 13 per cent, they said.
The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
The southwest monsoon over the country is likely to be normal in July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday in its forecast for the month.
Data spanning the years 1951 to 2014 show that temperature and pressure conditions at specific locations in the Arctic region during the pre-monsoon period correlate with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, points out Charu Bahri.
The onset of the southwest monsoon is being keenly watched this year as it may provide an early sign regarding its progress over the Indian subcontinent, particularly when El Nio is expected to rear its head during the latter half of the season.
East India, along with a major portion of central India, is likely to be at a higher risk of being rain deficient, especially during the first half of the season.
While the city received some showers late Wednesday night, it remained almost dry on Thursday.
Monsoon is likely to be 96 per cent of the long period average
Monsoon in August was almost 24 per cent below normal, which was the sixth driest August since 1901. It came on the back of a 7-per cent monsoon shortfall in July.
The IMD attributed the projection to a weakening of El Nio and the Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive.
Steady progress in June; north and central regions to get good pre-showers
IMD director general K J Ramesh said the Met wasn't being conservative and weather patterns indicated that there was a possibility of rainfall being very near to the 50-year LPA of 89 cm.
The monsoon this year in India was likely to be 'below normal' at 95% of LPA: Skymet
The IMD on its part is sticking to its forecast of July rainfall.
'The last time we had such a late withdrawal of monsoon was in 1960 or so.'
Rains have been 5% below normal so far, but Met department sticks to its forecast
Skymet lowered its full season monsoon forecast to 'below normal' from 'normal', while the IMD is sticking to its earlier forecast that rains in June to September of 2018 would be 'normal' at 97 per cent of the LPA with a model error of +/-5 per cent.
'The first two months of monsoon are not looking good.' 'In case both the halves fail, it is going to be misery.'
The IMD has fancy weather-monitoring radars in the name of providing better forecasts.
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